An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework for property valuation to identify the ideal 2050 portfolio mixes in EU-27 countries with shrinking populations

[EN] This paper presents a new methodology to evaluate the development trends of the residential trade and industry up until 2050. In the first step available data are analysed for the period 1970–2050. In the second step an expert assessment based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology is integrated to reflect the estimation of various expert forecasts of the future. The AHP methodology is based on different variables in the fields of demographic, social-environmental as well as build-quality characteristics to imply a widespread perception of the portfolio mix of habitations in 2050. There will mainly be a focus on several EU-27 countries with potential future-shrinking populations like Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Furthermore, they will be compared with Spain whose population is expected to increase.

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0264-3