PECULIARITIES IN THE DEMAND FORECAST FOR AN HSRL CONNECTING TWO COUNTRIES. CASE OF KUALA LUMPUR – SINGAPORE HSRL

Abstract

[EN] The High Speed Rail Line (HSRL) between Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Singapore (SP) is aimed at reducing to 90 minutes the travel time between two of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and fast-growing economic engines. Ineco was hired by the Government of Malaysia to forecast the demand for the future HSRL. The Government of Malaysia played a key role when firstly defining the current situation on the corridor and the features of the HSRL, and then providing Ineco with the studies previously developed by them. Besides the obvious interest in connecting both capital cities, Malaysia wishes to promote the economic development of intermediate cities, whereas Singapore, a 718 squarekilometer city-state and island, is interested in improving its connection with Nusajaya - a Malaysian city that is being developed just across the border and regarded as land reserves. Two kinds of services will be provided on the new rail infrastructure: non-stop services between KL and SP, and services with 6 intermediate stops on the Malaysian side. The aim of this paper is to describe the process to forecast the demand for the HSRL Kuala Lumpur – Singapore by focusing on the peculiarities of an international HSRL. Identifying these aspects at an early stage is vital to get a better demand estimate and to reconsider the HSRL characteristics if necessary. The demand for the new line was calculated by applying a three-step model: generation model, distribution model and modal split model. In 2030, 10 years after the opening year, the HSRL is expected to move 23 - 26 million passengers – baseline and optimistic scenarios, respectively -, which represents an 18.5% share of the total demand on the corridor. The demand for the KL-SP pair will account for 30% the demand for the future HSRL.