TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXISTENCE OF FREE BERTHS WITH RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES. ESTABLISHMENT OF POLICIES IN PORT OF CADIZ (SPAIN)

Abstract

[EN] his research discusses the challenges involved in the treatment of uncertainties in the existence of free berths during the arrival of cruise ships at seaports. Pursuing this goal, a three-step methodology is adopted: 1) Identifying risk sources and critical risk variables and how they are related; 2) Fitting the Probability Distribution Functions that best represent the behaviour of each critical risk variable; and 3) Simulating the probability of a ship having to wait because there are no free berths using a technique that combines statistical concepts (random sampling) with the ability of computers to generate pseudo-random numbers and automate estimations of the values of the set of critical risk variables. The innovative use of risk analysis techniques in this field allows the establishment of policies to improve the planning and management of port infrastructure, for example, deciding when it is necessary to work to increase the number of berths. As a case of study, we applied this methodology to study whether the enlargement of the wharf in the port of Cadiz (Spain) is necessary right now considering the number of cruise ships that have arrived at the port in the past three years, their date and hour of arrival, their length and draught, the duration of their stay in port and their waiting time before being able to enter the port. This action would require moving logistics activities to a new terminal, but would bring to the city the opportunity to rethink the seafront, introducing new cruiser links with the city centre and developing a better seaport-city integration.