Capturing the data uncertainty change in the cocaine consumption in Spain using an epidemiologically based model

[EN] A probabilistic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the cocaine consumption in Spain during the period of 1995–2011. Using the so-called probabilistic fitting technique, we study if the model is able to capture the data uncertainty coming from surveys. The proposed model is formulated through a nonlinear system of difference equations whose coefficients are treated as stochastic processes. A discussion regarding the usefulness and limitations of probabilistic fitting technique in order to capture the data uncertainty of the proposed model is presented.

Copyright © 2016 Christopher Anaya et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.