Future trends of dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations in Northwestern Mediterranean coastal waters under climate change

Abstract

[EN] Coastal ecosystems are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change, due to their location at the land-sea interface. In coastal waters, the nitrogen cycle can be significantly altered by rising temperatures and other factors derived from climate change, affecting phytoplankton and higher trophic levels. This research analyzes the effect of meteorological variables on dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species in coastal inshore waters of a Northwestern Mediterranean region under climate change. We built simple mathematical schemes based on artificial neural networks (ANN), trained with field data. Then, we used regional climatic projections for the Spanish Mediterranean coast to provide inputs to the trained ANNs, and thus, allowing the estimation of future DIN trends throughout the 21st century. The results obtained indicate that nitrite and nitrate concentrations are expected to decrease mainly due to rising temperatures and decreasing continental inputs. Major changes are projected for the winter season, driven by a rise in minimum temperatures which decrease the nitrite and nitrate peaks observed at low temperatures. Ammonium concentrations are not expected to undergo a significant annual trend but may either increase or decrease during some months. These results entail a preliminary simplified approach to estimate the impact of meteorological changes on DIN concentrations in coastal waters under climate change.