Análisis de riesgos económicos y temporales en la construcción de carreteras interurbanas en Perú

Abstract

[ES] El Trabajo de Fin de Máster estudia los riesgos que generan retraso y/o sobrecoste durante la fase de construcción de las carreteras interurbanas en Perú. Con base de datos públicos obtenidos de la plataforma INFObras, el Sistema de Seguimiento de Inversiones (SSI), el buscador de procedimientos de selección del Sistema Electrónico de Contrataciones del Estado (SE@CE), y el buscador público Cuaderno de Obra Digital (COD), se recopilan datos respecto al proceso de ejecución de los contratos de obras, obteniendo información acerca del plazo y coste de los contratos, avance físico y financiero de la ejecución, ampliaciones de plazo y adicionales de obra, liquidación del proyecto, entre otros. A partir de esta información, se determinan los riesgos que producen retrasos y sobrecostes, la frecuencia en que aparecen en los proyectos y el impacto que generan en estos y finalmente, se identifica en qué etapa de avance está la obra cuando ocurren y si guarda relación con su impacto.

[EN] Abstract One of the most important aspects for the development of countries has been the investment in infrastructure, essential to improve the access to markets and the quality of services. However, even though these advancements exist, problems in the management and execution of projects persists, which causes significant delays and cost overruns in infrastructure projects and especially in the construction of highways. An adequate management, supervision and control of these projects is essential to be able to optimize public investment and achieve the deadlines, costs and quality targets. In this context, risk management is a crucial factor, since the identification, evaluation and early response to the risks are vital for a project's success, as they inform and prepare the teams facing the uncertainty and could help to mitigate the negative impacts on deadlines and costs. A review of the existing literature was conducted, and it was found that research tends to focus on identifying the causes of risks, while project management and the actual construction conditions receive less attention, especially in developing Latin American countries such as Peru. Therefore, all studies on the risks that specifically affect road infrastructure projects can provide valuable information to project managers and researchers to understand the level of risk or uncertainty their projects are exposed to. The objective of this study is to analyse the risks that cause delays and cost overruns in the construction of interurban highways in Peru and the influence they have depending on the stage of the works in which they occur. To achieve this target, information from 127 construction projects of the local highway network in Peru was reviewed, and 21 time-related risks and 14 economic risks were identified. To characterise the risks, descriptive statistics were used, which allowed the analysis of the data and subsequent classification of the risks according to their frequency and impact. Once the critical and moderate risks were identified, the risks that arise at different stages of the construction of highways were determined. The results show that the most important delay-related risks are: adverse weather conditions; problems due to COVID-19; issues with property owners adjacent to the site; and redesigns due to changes in the original technical design. Additionally, it was determined that the following risks, although less frequent, have significant potential impacts on deadlines: conflicts between parties and the lack of budget availability. On the other hand, the most frequent and economically impactful risks are: inflation/market fluctuations; inaccurate cost estimates during the project phase; errors, omissions, and discrepancies in project documents; and inaccurate information gathering about the site of the project. Regarding the project stage at which risks first arise, while the results indicate that both types of risks are present throughout the project cycle, a significant proportion of delay-related risks emerge at the beginning of execution and in the earlier stages. Cost overrun risks tend to manifest more prominently in later stages, especially when the original deadlines have been exceeded. Both analyses reaffirm the need for constant and proactive attention to risks, especially to prevent problems in critical phases from significantly affecting the project's timelines and budget. It is of vital importance that project sponsors and managers implement risk management strategies from the initial planning stage. For this, it is essential to identify and define the specific risks of their projects in the early stages, as without information and data for analysis, it will be difficult for them to understand and manage the level of risk or uncertainty their projects are exposed to during the different stages of execution